Cords IKH blog

1 lot of EUR/CAD reaches an exit!

Wed, 15 Oct 2008 13:47:14 +0200

Hi there,

A very quick post today to let you know that one lot of our EUR/CAD trade has been exited.

This follows a Kijun Sen cross at a price of 1.5766, and brought us a total of 588 pips. Our initial stop was set at a value of 1.4946 and represented 1.5% of our account size at 232 pips.

So, our risk reward here was 1:2.5 for 1.5% = A 3.75% account size gain!

Plus, we still have one extra lot riding along nicely with an exit target of a Kumo reversal.

Should the Kijun Sen re-cross with the Kumo still in our favor, I will re-enter Long with another 1.5% lot.

Happy trading all.

Cord

Comments

EURCAD still going strong

Tue, 14 Oct 2008 17:32:23 +0200

Hi all,

It's been a while since my last post. I've had much to do away from trading, and what with so much uncertainty around the markets these last few days I've decided not to make any entries until things quieten down a little.

Two things to report though.

Firstly, our AUDCAD finally stopped out. This results in us down a total of 2% of our initial account size as it's the second stop since this blog started, but we expect this. No system can go without some losses, and ours is designed to ensure that each win more than makes up for losses sustained.

So, to our second report - the EURCAD pair we entered long on the 8th of this month is still proceeding nicely. It currently has 2 lots each sat 646 points above the initial entry, and is therefore currently at a 1:8 risk/reward ratio. Our rules state we must stay in until a clear exit signal presents though, so no pulling out yet!
Stops have been moved up, and have now separated - with one on the bottom of the Kumo and the other sat at the last level period of the Kijun Sen. If both stops were to be triggered now, we would exit the trade 4% account size better off - meaning that we are currently 2% up from when we started, with only more potential profits possible.

I'll keep an overview of this trade going here over the coming week, but unless I see a very stable and safe looking entry, I won't be adding any more pairs to our portfolio right now.

Remember, our money is only at risk when we're actually trading - sometimes a short wait to allow the market spasms to stop can save a large loss, and with a successful system it would be a shame to lose money to random fluctuations!

Happy trading all,

Cord

Comments

AUD/CAD stopped out

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 04:34:37 +0200

Good morning,

Our AUD/CAD entry has been stopped out at 0.7658, for a loss of 1% of our account size. Whilst the confirmation we waited for did arrive, it proved to be a short lived trend. So, our decision to enter with only 1 x 1% lot proved a correct one, and our losses have been minimized. Had we entered as soon as the IKH told us to, we would have made a small 40 point profit. Something to think about...

On the flip side, our EUD/CAD trade is still growing nicely, and is currently sitting 580 pips above the entry point. As stated in my last post though, the daily chart price has just breached the top of the Kumo, so we will need to be vigilant and ensure we avoid being caught by a reversal.

Finally, the USD/CHF entry is hovering right around our entry point after taking a brief turn against us, and with the H1 chart showing both a Kijun Sen cross and a continuing Bearish Kumo, I am happy to let this continue to ride.

I have other commitments over the day, so will only be able to return to check on our trades this evening. With the weekend fast approaching, I will re-assess if it is safe to leave trades open until Monday.

Happy trading all,

Cord

Comments

Update...

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 21:46:07 +0200

Several of the AUD pairs are showing a 1 hour chart Bullish trend at present, and so we'll be keeping an eye on them to see how they develop. As we are already in with an AUD trade, I won't rush in to anything too hastily, but will let things develop so as to be sure...

Our EUR/CAD trade is still progressing nicely. The price has moved up to 450 pips beyond our entry, and our stop has now moved up to 1.5203 - level with the bottom edge of the Kumo.
Looking at the daily EURCAD chart, we can see that the price is about to hit the top edge of the Kumo there.

Will it break through?

If it does, then we can look forward to larger potential profits still with our current entry. If it falters, then we can start to consider an exit - but again we are in no rush, and can let the price do what it needs to do for now.

happy trading,

Cord

Comments

Update - lets see how things stand...

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 15:44:20 +0200

Good afternoon all!

The good thing with the IKH system, and indeed with swing trading in general, is that we can leave the market to mold our trades out without the need to sit glued to the monitor all the while we're 'in'.

So, after a refreshing nights sleep and an enjoyable say shopping and cinema going, lets see where things stand with our entries.

EUR/CAD -

Currently going strong and following our projected move Bullishly upwards. Both lots are sat nearly 300 points above our initial entry, and we continue to observe the Kumo and drag the stoploss up with each advance it makes.

USD/CHF -

Currently sat 104 points above our Short entry, half way between the entry and the stoploss. Looking at the chart a little closer we can observe the Kumo has started to shrink slightly, the Chinkou Span has become glued to the price trail and both the Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen have reached a point of indifference and are leveled out.

What does this mean? Well, right now it seems the market is undecided if it wants to go Bullish or Bearish, and so our trade remains in limbo. I'm happy to let this trade continue on for the mean time and see where it goes - it will make for a good learning point.

AUD/CAD -

Remember we were going to keep an eye on this to see where it went? Well, the hourly chart has continued to show a healthy Bullish move upwards and seems to have broken through the Kumo with some strength.

The Kumo too, has shown a reversal and has now become Bullish. The Chinkou span has also crossed the price trail and is continuing upwards - pointing to a Bullish drive.

So, should we enter now or wait?

I'm going to enter now, but will place a conservative stop at the level of the Kijun Sen, and will only enter with 1 lot. Should the 4 hour chart start to show signs of turning Bullish, I will take this as confirmation that the price is indeed starting a healthy reversal, and will enter with another lot.

So,

Enter - 0.7960
Amount - 1 lot
Stop - 0.7658
Exit - Use the IKH as a whole to determine upwards trend has come to an end.

So, we now have three active trades - and roughly 5% of account is online and risked within the market. Lets return in a few hours and see where things are headed.

Happy trading,

Cord

Comments

AUD/CAD H1

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 03:28:38 +0200

The Kijun Sen has just Bullishly crossed upwards on the H1 chart for the AUD/CAD.

However, all other time frames are demonstrating a strong downtrend with Bearish Kumo and Chinkou Span.

So, what to do?

Let's look at the H1 chart a little closer -

1.) The Kumo is still showing Bearish sentiment, although it is starting to thin out a little.
2.) The price action is BELOW the Kumo, signaling a weakened buy indication.
3.) The Chinkou span is steadily rising and could potentially break through the price action.

So how do we utilise this information?

Well, I'm going to hold out from entering a trade right now and give the price some time to develop either way.

If it continues to uptrend another IKH signal will be tripped, such as the Chinkou Span crossing the price action, or the Kumo showing a reversed sentiment. If the price action itself reverses, then the Kijun Sen will recross the Tenkan Sen, and with everything discussed taken into consideration this would be a strong signal to go short on this pair for some potential gains.

Let's return to the AUD/CAD in a few hours and see what has happened.

Cord

Comments

EUR/CAD Stop moved

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 03:15:21 +0200

I have moved the stoploss up from 1.4946 to 1.5065.

The price action has stalled briefly at 138 points above the entry, and by moving the stop to the current Kumo/Kijun level we have effectively halved the risk involved with this trade whilst still giving the price action plenty of room to breath.

I'll move it again if/when the Kumo reach our initial entry point in order to break even, and then will follow the bottom of the Kumo as it progresses upwards in order to lock in profits.

Finally, our USD/CHF trade has experienced a brief up trend. If it continues it will reach our stop, and our risk of only 1 lot of 1.5% will prove to have been justified. If it reverses and the trade turns in our direction, I'll follow the same stoploss management technique as outline above.

Happy trading all,

Cord

Comments

Short on the USDCHF

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 19:46:28 +0200

Another entry signal.

This time on the USDCHF pair, but with different indications that price is about to turn.

1.) Kijun Sen Cross, indicating a Bearish drive to push the price down.

2.) The Chinkou Span has crossed the price, another indication that the Bears are making a drive!

Because we have two indications of a price reversal, there is an opportunity to enter with 2 lots of 1.5% here (using my money management rules), but lets take a closer look at the Kumo here! We can see that the Kumo is still large, and very much Bullish! Lets protect ourselves and only enter with 1 lot. We can always enter another lot should the circumstances change and the Kumo turn in our favour.

The chart -

So, for this trade we have -

Enter - 1.1218
Stoploss - Set at a sufficient distance to let the price stretch its legs, without including too much risk (1.1444).
Exit - So far we are looking only for another Kijun Sen Cross.
Additional - Let's keep an eye on things and see if we can't enter another lot should the Kumo turn.

Comments

Going long

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:43:37 +0200

Well, look at that. An entry signal right off the bat!

The EUR/CAD H4 chart is showing not one but two entry signals.

1.) The Kumo has flipped with a Senkou span cross, and is now showing a Bullish trend.
2.) A Kijun Sen Cross occurred very recently, strengthening our belief that the price has started a Bullish trend.

Because both signals are saying to buy, and because the weekly chart is showing a Bullish Kumo, we enter with 2 lots of 1.5% trades. We will exit one when the Senkou span cross turns bearish, and one when the Kijun Sen Cross turns Bearish.

Finally, the chart -

We put our stoploss at the opposite edge of the Kumo, which translates to 1.4946 - around 170 pips from our entry.

So -

Entry - 1.5178 with 2 lots, going long
Stoploss - 1.4946
Exit - Both a Kijun Sen Cross with 1 lot and a Senkou span cross with the remaining lot - both signaling a trend reversal.

Comments

Welcome!

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 13:53:52 +0200

Hi there... Welcome... Come on in!

I hope you wern't hit by the sheer number of other trade blogs out there were you? No? Ah, good!

I'm Cordite (you can call me Cord, everyone does). I trade using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyu system. This, as I'm sure you can guess, started out in Japan and has only very recently made its way across to the Western world. You'll need a brief understanding of this system, which is more than I can give you, so check out -

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

An excellent resource!

If you're compleley new to Forex itself, you're going to need an insight! Check out -

http://www.babypips.com/school/

This should answer most of your questions!

What I can tell you though myself are my money management rules!

I trade any one of 29 different currency pairs. All the majors of course, but also many of the more irratic pairs. This is because the IKH system is designed for swing traders; where the time frames involved should hopefully iron out much of the turbulance often associated with lesser pairs. I also trade any of four timeframes using MT4 - H1/H4/D1 & W1.

My money management rules are adjusted thusly - for H1 charts any indication of a buy allows me to risk 1% or my account, for H4 I can risk 1.5%, for D1 2% and for W1 2.5%.

Don't worry, this will become clear as we go along!

I'll be trading live with you, posting charts and explanations of why I chose to enter/leave the market when I did.

In fact, this blog is really my personal trading journal - so really I'm writing just for me - but hey, it's great you could come along for the ride!

So, it's now 13:52 on the 8th October 2008.

Let's begin!

Comments